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John Redwood has responded to my blog last week in which I criticised the Wokingham MP for presenting himself as the Cassandra of the credit crunch (all-seeing, ignored):
No actually
It’s odd for someone who was supposedly worried about excessive debt to have been complaining that market interest rates were too high. Higher rates were surely a good thing (in the analysis of 2011 Redwood) in that they discouraged excessive borrowing.
As you can see, the ECB was the only major Western central bank to raise rates after August 2007. And that was only by 25 basis points. The Fed and the Bank of England began cutting interest rates almost from the moment Mr Redwood’s report appeared. And the ECB followed in the autumn of 2008. So far from “turning the money off”, as Mr Redwood puts it, the central banks turned it on.
Here’s what the Federal Reserve did:
Mr Redwood seems to argue that disaster for the global economy could have been averted if central banks had raised interest rates more slowly. That’s a big and quixotic claim. It doesn’t sound like the sort of argument that someone who was worried about the vast amount of bad debt in the system would make.
And here’s what the European Central Bank did:
As he argues on page 3 of his report,You are not allowed to view links.
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, remarking on the general global economic conditions of low borrowing rates:
‘There is considerable uncertainty in world markets about how far the Federal reserve Board,You are not allowed to view links.
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, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England may go in raising rates to squeeze inflation out of the system. They must know that huge pyramids of debt throughout the system, and inflation,You are not allowed to view links.
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, will not be killed unless the appetite for more debt is blunted. They also know that if they push interest rates too high for too long they could bring the debt structures crashing down, as we have seen with the sub prime mortgage collapse in the USA, leading to falling asset prices, rising unemployment and even recession’
I also don’t find Mr Redwood’s protestations that he was worried all along by low interest rates convincing.
“The UK has not performed that well against this very favourable background. We have experienced higher interest rates than most of our main competitors.”
I argued in the credit bubble that rates were too low and credit was growing excessively. In the slump I argued that the authorities were starving the markets of liquidity and bringing down good assets with bad. In the Review we made it clear that ‘institutions which take client money and place it on their own balance sheets should have to meet capital adequacy requirements and strict reporting requirements’. Mr Chu says the problem was the experienced investors. The problem was the scale of bank balance sheets, which expanded massively compared to the 1980s and 1990s when I was involved in financial regulation. The regulators in 2007 accepted levels of gearing we never imagined were possible or sensible, and which they now regret.
Here’s what happened to Bank of England interest rates from August 2007:
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, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, interest rates, john redwood, recession
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Mr Chu should remove his false allegations against me. I did not welcome excessive credit in 2006-7 and have always favoured counter-cyclical bank cash and capital regulation.”
A few points in response.
This is not the view of one who sought to praise the excesses of the easy credit era. Mr Chu could criticise me for hoping the Central Banks would understand how dangerous the structure they had allowed to happen had become, and would proceed at a sensible pace with sorting it out. Instead they decided on the dramatic option of turning the money off and bringing on the inevitable crash. I did forecast possible recession, well before it was acceptable to mention the ‘r’ word in UK political debate, let alone forecast one. I also forecast the end to the favourable downward pressure on prices from Indian and Chinese competition, which has come through as high UK inflation subsequently.
 
Even if you believe that the central banks caused the credit crunch by tightening too hastily,You are not allowed to view links.
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, they had already performed the bulk of their tightening by the time Mr Redwood’s report came out. He apparently didn’t notice.
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“Mr Chu has read very selectively in his critique of my views prior to the Credit Crunch. Had he read on beyond his quote from me concerning the piles of debt he would have seen:
Moreover,You are not allowed to view links.
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http://blog.paltalk.com/paltalkpress/2011/01/post-2.html#comments

, the timeline of interest rate movement doesn’t favour Mr Redwood. His report for the Conservatives was released in August 2007. So one would assume that, shortly after,You are not allowed to view links.
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, the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank all hiked interest rates with aggressive stupidity, right?

[caroline4]

Yesterday p.m., a reporter with Jiang Ming's father came to North China University. Mechanical and Electrical Engineering Baichuan Dong, deputy secretary of Party branch, said that Jiang Ming in the case of the College attaches excellent importance. Currently, the files have been transferred to Anhui Province, Jiang Ming artist service megalopolis. From the new situation to make sure, through such twists and corners, Jiang Ming of the psychological shock of being hardly ever, hoping that he would convalesce fall butme time,You are not allowed to view links.
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, and you can find the relevant psychological specialists for consultation. Jiang Ming of the mental state to be entirely reinstated, you can return to school to persist their studies.
 
 Pang recollections, the youth male at first refused to speak,You are not allowed to view links.
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, he would conversation with each additional using crash to come and send something to dine, and gave the juvenile man had a foam cushion. After about a week, the juvenile man approved him, narrated his own position. At namely time, Jiang Ming do not memorize his father's phone digit, Pang police station to find the apple orchard, with the aid of the police, and ultimately linked to Jiang Ming's father.
 
 on the college, Jiang Ming general learned rendition. Attended by the former, there have been hanging branches, not through English 4. Their graduating that year, my sibling go to seminary, family burden quite ponderous. Jiang Ming said, because constantly the family concerned,You are not allowed to view links.
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, but also for their future is full of perplexity, has no appetite to arrange thesis and finally did not get a diploma and degree certificates.
 
 23-year-old Jiang Ming of middling create, cilia disheveled, his hands have left the cracking of the aperture. Reporter's answer, he simply replied, do not take the initiative to speak.
 
 
 Mr. Jiang said that he commonly working outdoor farming in his hometown, his wife, two children to school for a lot of money already owed. Jiang Ming did not obtain in that diploma, he had asked his son how do blueprint,You are not allowed to view links.
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, Jiang Ming said, and then preparing a thesis, still have the chance to get a diploma and degree certificates.
 the correspondent admitted to a heap of North China University of Jiang Ming (pseudonym) for hanging branches, emphatic dissertation, unable to obtain graduation and degree certificates. Graduated from after 2009, Jiang Ming do not want to go behind to their families for money was not any work, from July last year, sleeping under the bridge Huangcun West West Fifth Ring, by picking up waste for a living.
 1 15, this reporter went to the West Fifth Ring West Huangcun bridge, Jiang Ming of the Apart from some age carpets, dress and shoes, there are a lot of waste news incomplete. According to Jiang Ming said the sleeping under the bridge of his weekly and the cardinal path to slay time. Into the autumn and winter, the temperature plummeted. To reserve lukewarm, Jiang Ming goes to mattress even ahead the ambition to carry their personal clothing and cover the top. Cooling, Jiang Ming get up up several times each night was chilly, but still survived.
 
 Mr. Jiang has been ordered to return home tonight, practice, he said, to bring his son to psychological counseling and physical exam, resting fhardly everme time before her son back to school.
 
 mid-April last year, after losing contact with his son, Mr. Jiang gave the school a call, the school did not react to Jiang Ming back to school after school too, I do not understand whereabouts. Jiang Ming's mother, restless for this white brain.
 
 Jiang Ming moved to the West Fifth Ring West Huangcun bridge, the bridge from the University of North approximately 34 kilometers away. Why sleep aboard the West Huangcun bridge, Jiang Ming would not say. There namely not source of proceeds,You are not allowed to view links.
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, merely likewise refused to take the initiative to contact the family, pick up garbage because cash became his method of subsistence.
 
 Jiang Ming said that he did not want to give the family burden, why not obtain a permit is not seeing for work. Early last year, he had to linger in the rented chamber virtually every day calculating about their own future, to buy bread to eat hungry, thirsty to drink boiled water.
 
 April final annual, Jiang Ming call arrears, since lost contact with the kin, the father did no go down to his playing card money. Three months later, Jiang Ming tin no afford the rent deserving to begin wandering.
 Earlier this year, good-hearted folk base Jiang Ming Pang, and Jiang Ming contacted by police the father. January 15, Mr. Jiang arrived in Beijing, prepared to take his son family. North China University official says, Jiang Mingjing advocate, you can return to school to continue their studies.
 1 15,You are not allowed to view links.
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, journalist in the West Fifth Ring West Huangcun 100 meters east of the bridge, Pang rented hut to discern the uncomplicated Jiang Ming.
 
 
 school year did not find a job
Jiang Ming was sleeping place. Zhu Jia Leishe
 
 
 sleeping under the bridge pick up waste for a living
 
 ardent human to help father and son reunion
 
 
 
 
 this kind of life continued until early January. More than half a year for this tramp life,You are not allowed to view links.
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, Jiang Ming said that do not want to remember.
 Pang also from Anhui. According to him, in the beginning of this year, said he heard neighbors speak, there is a young man sleeping in the yard the bridge beginning more than six months. Out of compassion,You are not allowed to view links.
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, he found this young man.
 1 15, Mr. Jiang arrived in Beijing, Mr. Peng took him to his rented land, then, Jiang Ming was already there waiting. Father and son encounter repeatedly can not help but cried together. The same day, Mr. Jiang barber with his son a bath, alteration clothes.
 
 According to Jiang Ming introduced in September 2005, he was admitted to the North China University, in Electrical Engineering schools. At that time, he took the test 584 points, the score could be considered in Anhui Province in the year scores.
 
 
 2009 July, Jiang Ming, behind educate, rental housing close the school, rent $ 400 a month, and his father also, for he did by school, playing 5 or six hundred a month to Cary price of alive.
 
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000 years .

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, such as weaving along the Yi River
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